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SHORT-AND LONG-RUN FARM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY; INTEGRATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS |
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| Authors: | D. Yaron U. Horowitz |
| Affiliation: | are Senior Lecturer and Research Assistant, respectively, Department of Agricultural Economics, The Hebrew University. The paper is based partly on a M.Sc. Thesis submitted by U. Horowitz to the Hebrew University. |
| Abstract: | The paper presents an approach to an integrated long-run and short-run farm planning under uncertainty, based on a decomposition of the problem into (i) a series of short-run plans, and (ii) a master long-run plan. The series of the short-run plans are parametrically solved by linear programming "variable right hand" techniques and are later integrated into a long-run program using a (computerized) decision tree analysis. The attitude towards risk of the farm operator is expressed in the willingness to maximize the expected value of the income stream over the planning horizon subject to the restriction that alternatives which may lead to lack of liquidity must be eliminated. Ce travail présenle une approche tentative ďintégrer, sous conditions incertaines, une planification de ferme à court et long terme. La planification est basée sur la partition du problème en (i) série de courte durée et (ii) de tongue durée. Les séries de courte durée sont résolues àľaide dun programme linéaire, et intégreés ensuite dans un programme à long terme àľaide de ľanalyse de "décision arbre."ľattitude envers les risques de ľentrepreneur est exprimée par la volonté-de maxiliser la valeur de revenu prévu au delá de la planification sous resérve de la restriction que des alternatives qui peuvent conduire à un manque de moyens liquides, doivent être éliminees. |
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