中国外汇储备适度规模影响因素的实证分析

从1985年-2004年中国外汇储备适度规模的影响因素来看，外商直接投资是影响中国外汇储备适度规模的主导因素，外债规模、广义货币、进口与当年本国GDP同样是影响中国外汇储备适度规模的主要因素，各种因素对外汇储备的影响力度差距并不大。因此，在测算中国外汇储备适度规模时要综合考虑各种因素的作用。1985年-2004年，中国的外汇储备经历了不足-适度-超额的变动过程。中国已经出现超额外汇储备，为此需要采取相关措施加以解决。

An Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Moderate Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve

This paper uses the method of GRA to analyze the factors influencing moderate scale of foreign exchange reserve from the year 1985 to 2004,pointing out that FDI is the predominant factor;foreign debt,broad-sense money,import and GDP are other important factors influencing the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserve.However,their differences are small.This needs a comprehensive consideration of every factor when the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserve is calculated.After analyzing China's present foreign exchange reserve according to influencing factors,this paper concludes that from the year 1985 to 2004,China's foreign exchange reserve has gone through short-moderate-exceed quota and China's foreign exchange reserve has exceeded moderate scale.