二胎政策对宏观经济的影响研究——基于劳动力供给视角

中国已经成为世界上老年人口最多的国家且老龄化程度正在加速深化。随着中国人口老龄化形势的不断严峻,科学合理地制定应对老龄化的政策已是大势所趋。文章通过理论分析,揭示"全面二孩"政策和宏观经济各变量之间的内在联系,并且利用嵌入"全面二孩"政策的动态随机一般均衡模型进行模拟分析。研究发现,当人口老龄化的程度比较严重的时候,"全面二孩"政策会使得产出和劳动时间一直处于增加的状态,而消费的正向波动有所减小,反向波动有所增加。政策制定者可以根据不同的人口老龄化形势来做出不同的决策,促进人口老龄化向人口素质红利转变,把中国从一个富起来的中国变成一个强起来的中国,进一步实现两步走的伟大目标。

Research on the Influence of “Two-Child” Policy on Macro Economy: Based on the Perspective of Labor Supply

China has become the country with the largest elderly population in the world and the aging is accelerating. With the increasingly severe situation of aging population in China, it is the general trend to formulate policies to cope with aging scientifically and rationally. Through theoretical analysis, this paper reveals the internal relationship between the "Two-Child" Policy and macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded in the policy is used for simulation analysis. The study found that when the population aging is relatively serious, the "Two-Child" policy will make the output and labor time increase all the time, while the positive fluctuation of consumption will decrease and the reverse fluctuation will increase. Policy makers can make different decisions according to different aging population situations, promote the transformation of aging population into demographic quality dividend, transform China from a rich country to a strong one, and further realize the great goal of two-step.