我国区域金融风险的时空演化及驱动机制——基于经济四部门视角

文章基于我国2005至2016年的分省数据，采用SMR和基尼系数法刻画了区域金融风险的时空演化趋势，并通过构建多样化空间关联模式，运用空间偏微分方法，从经济四部门视角验证了区域金融风险时空演化的驱动机制。研究发现：从我国区域金融风险的时空演化来看，在时间维度上，大部分省份仍存在较高的金融风险，在空间维度上，样本考察期内东部地区和西部地区金融风险地区内差异较大，中部较小，东部地区和中部地区金融风险的地区间差异最大，东部地区和西部地区次之，中部地区和西部地区最小；区域内政府、企业和家庭部门是导致区域金融风险时空演化的主要原因，且区域间的风险外溢效应加大了对区域金融风险的冲击作用。因此，国家防控金融风险要切中要害，从区域金融风险的源头抓起，充分考虑地区之间的空间关联，防止区域内外驱动机制对区域金融风险的放大作用，避免决策偏误。

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Regional Financial Risks in China: Based on Four Sectors of the Economy

China has entered a period of frequent financial risks. To prevent and resolve financial risks, it is necessary to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution of financial risks. The reality of China reflects the influence of government departments, enterprise departments and household departments on regional financial risks. Therefore, we solve the above problems from the perspective of the four sectors of the economy. The regional government, business and household sectors may have an impact on regional financial risks, and sectors in other regions may also have an impact on regional financial risks through the spatial interaction of economic activities. Using China's provincial data from 2005 to 2016, we describe the spatial and temporal evolution of regional financial risks, and further verify the driving mechanism of regional financial risk spatial and temporal evolution from the perspective of economic four sectors. The study finds that in the time dimension, most provinces still have high financial risks. In the spatial dimension, there are large differences of the financial risk in different regions of China. Among these differences, during the sample survey period, the regional gap of the financial risk in the eastern region and the western region are larger, and the central part is smaller. The inter-regional gap between eastern region and the central region is largest, followed by the eastern region and the western region, and inter-regional gap between the central region and the western region is smallest. The regional government, business and household sectors are the main reasons for the spatial and temporal evolution of regional financial risks, and the risk spillover effect between regions will increase the impact on regional financial risks. Our findings are meaningful for preventing and controlling financial risks. It is important to grab the key areas, and start from the source of regional financial risks, and fully consider the spatial correlation between regions to avoid decision-making mistakes and prevent regional systemic financial risk outbreaks.