Validation in agent-based models: An investigation on the CATS model |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Università di Pisa, Italy;2. DEP/IMQ, Università Bocconi Milano, Italy;3. DEA/SIEC, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Italy;4. Dipartimento di Diritto, Economia e Finanza Internazionale, Università di Parma, Italy;1. College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University, China;2. Institute of Artificial Intelligence, College of Computer Science, Zhejiang University, China;1. College of Computer and Information, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China;2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;3. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;1. Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Donostia-San Sebastian 20018, Spain;2. Department of Computer Architecture and Technology, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Donostia-San Sebastian 20018, Spain |
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| Abstract: | In this paper we deal with some validation experiments on the complex adaptive trivial system (CATS) model proposed in Gallegati et al. [Gallegati, M., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A., Delli Gatti, D., 2003a. Financial fragility, patterns of firms’ entry and exit and aggregate dynamics. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 51, 79–97; Gallegati, M., Delli Gatti, D., Di Guilmi, C., Gaffeo, E., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A., 2005. A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 56, 489–512]. In particular starting from a sample of Italian firms included in the AIDA database, we perform several ex post validation experiments over the simulation period 1996–2001. In the experiments, the model parameters have been estimated using actual data and the initial set up consists of a sample of agents in 1996. The CATS model is then simulated over the period 1996–2001. Using alternative validation techniques, the simulations’ results are ex post validated respect to the actual data. |
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