延迟退休：个人理性与政府决策的冲突与平衡

通过个人退休决策和养老保险基金平衡模型，文章分析个人和政府的决策差异，首次将Leslie人口模型引入养老保险基金平衡公式，修正养老保险制度抚养比，以测算渐进式延迟退休时间表对养老保险基金缺口的影响。模型结果表明：在低利率、低初始就业年龄的现实条件下，强制延迟退休会造成个人福利损失，政策执行存在阻力。然而，延迟退休政策势在必行，是应对养老保险基金缺口的现实选择。面对决策冲突，政府应首先尽快统一退休年龄，以此为改革突破口，采取多种配套措施逐步推进退休年龄改革。

The Conflict and Balance Between Individual and Government Choices on Deferred Retirement Policy

Modeling the individual retirement choice and public pension fund balance to analyze the difference between choice makers of deferred retirement, for the first time it plugs Leslie population model in the fund balance formula in order to modify the dependency ratio of public pension system and demonstrates the effect of progressive deferred retirement schedule on funding gap. The modeling results show that under the circumstance of low initial working age and interest rate, deferred retirement policy may influence the individual benefit, thus individuals will disobey the policy. For the government, he has to choose deferred retirement policy copying with population aging and funding gap, and will reform the retirement policy thoroughly. Although the conflicts exist between them, the government should arrange the same retirement age for the men and women, then on the base of this gentle reform, related measure should be taken to balance the public pension system, such as improving interest rate, birth policy, contribution management and multiple-pillar pension system.