中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分。自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验。本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,测算了2001-2017年中美农产品贸易的强度和产品、地域结构。分析结果表明,中美互加关税会使中国对美国农产品进口额下降超过50%,对美农产品出口额也有小幅下跌,同时,中国农产品进口主要转移至巴西、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度等国,美国农产品出口部分转移至韩国、荷兰、墨西哥。基于以上研究,本文认为,短期中国要解决大豆和饲料的缺口问题,长期要调整农业种植和农产品进口结构,增加肉类及肉制品进口量,并有意识地调整贸易结构,分散风险,提高应对突发事件的抵御能力,保障国内农业产业安全。

Research on the Influence of China-US Trade Friction on China's Agricultural Trade Structure

China-US trade in agricultural products has always been an indispensable part of economic and trade relations.Since the outbreak of China-US trade friction in April 2018,the two countries have published three lists of goods and imposed tariffs on them that covered almost all products in bilateral trade which could pose challenges to China’s agricultural industry and food security.This paper has calculated the proportion of listed agricultural products on the China-US published in 2018 in the total agricultural trade of each country.After that,this paper has calculated the intensities,product and regional structure of the agricultural trade of both countries between 2001 and 2017 by using Trade Intensity Index(TII) and Gini-Hirschman Index(GHI).The results show that the mutual add tariffs make China’s agricultural imports from the US decreased by more than 50%,exports to US has also decrease slightly.China’s agricultural imports mainly transferred to other major importing countries,such as Brazil,etc.,while America’s agricultural exports transferred to Japan and other countries.China should solve the shortages of soybean and feed recently and adjust the structure of agricultural imports and planting,while increasing the import of meat products,reducing risks and improving the capacity to against emergencies to ensure the safety of the domestic agricultural industry.