对外直接投资、母国营商环境与母国技术进步——基于门槛模型的检验

近年来,日趋复杂的国际环境影响企业的投资信心与决策。在学界,对外直接投资(OFDI)与技术进步的关联逐渐成为热点话题,随着各国不断优化营商环境,母国营商环境对二者的关联产生什么样的影响呢？鉴于鲜有文献探讨这一具有重要意义的话题,文章尝试将营商环境纳入基于企业利润最大化的理论模型,从母国营商环境视角阐释OFDI与母国技术进步的非线性关系;在此基础上,以2004—2020年115个经济体的面板数据为样本,运用Hansen门槛模型进行实证检验。研究表明:第一,在母国营商环境的影响下,OFDI与母国技术进步存在V型关系,即随着营商环境的改善,OFDI对技术进步具有先抑制后促进的影响。第二,OFDI对母国技术进步的非线性影响具有国家异质性。当营商环境超过一定临界值后,发达国家与新兴国家OFDI对技术进步均具有显著的正向影响,但发达国家的营商环境临界值更大,新兴国家的正向影响效应更强。第三,在解决内生性问题、替换指标和估计方法之后,实证结果依然稳健。最后进一步指出,在新发展格局下,我国在进行深层次改革、优化营商环境的同时,必须坚持扩大开放、提高对外直接投资质量,增强OFDI对我国技术进步的促进作用。

Outward Foreign Direct Investment,Business Environment and Technological Progress of Home Country: An Empirical Test Based on Threshold Models

With the development of economic globalization, the international environment has become more complicated. For example, COVID-19 affected the total capacity of cross-border investment, investment confidence and decision-making of multinational firms. Many cross-border investment projects were delayed. However, OFDI makes firms participate in international competition and cooperation, which helps to improve the international competitiveness. In recent years, the relationship between OFDI and technological progress has become an important topic in the field of international economics.The business environment has a systematic impact on a country's transaction costs based on the institutional environment and institutional arrangements, but few literatures have examined the relationship between OFDI and technological progress from the perspective of home country's business environment. This paper discusses the important topic and tries to solve the following problems:Can the business environment of home country has an impact on the relationship between OFDI and technological progress? What kind of business environment will help to enhance the positive effect of OFDI on technological progress? Is there national heterogeneity?To answer the above questions, this paper attempts to explain the nonlinear effect of OFDI on home country's technological progress from the perspective of home country's business environment based on the theoretical model. The business environment is included in the theoretical model, which is based on the impact of business environment on the motivation of OFDI, research and development and technology transfer of multinational firms. Using Hansen threshold models, we then examine the effect of OFDI on home country's technological progress based on the panel data of 115 economies from 2004 to 2020.The conclusions of this paper are as follows. First, there is a 'V-shaped' relationship between OFDI and home country's technological progress under the effect of home country's business environment. In other words, with the improvement of business environment, OFDI firstly has a negative effect on technological progress, and the effect turns positive. Secondly, OFDI has shown different impacts on home country's technological progress in different countries. When the business environment exceeds a certain critical value, OFDI has a significant positive impact on home country's technological progress in both developed and emerging countries. But the critical value of business environment is higher in developed countries, while the positive impact is more significant in emerging countries. Thirdly, the above conclusions are confirmed by all kinds of robustness checks including solving the endogenous problem, replacing indicators and regression methods.The above findings further point out that under the new development pattern, China must carry out in-depth reform and optimize the business environment, as well as continue to expand the opening up, improve the quality of OFDI, and enhance the role played by OFDI in promoting China's technological progress.