养老金支付缺口：口径、方法与测算分析

基于精算和会计原理，本文对养老金支付缺口的内涵、口径和评估方法做了系统梳理和对比分析，并在不同口径和方法下，对我国城镇基本养老保险社会统筹基金的支付缺口进行了测算，分析了人口、经济和制度因素变动对测算结果的影响。结论表明，尽管在不同评估目的下，养老金支付缺口有不同的评估口径和评估方法，选择不同的精算假设，会得出有差异的评估结果，但在人口老龄化和人口长寿的总体趋势下，我国的养老金支付缺口呈现不断增大的趋势，如果不改革现行制度，养老金的财务可持续性将面临挑战。

Pension Deficit: Scope, Methodology and Measurement

Based on actuarial and accounting principles, this paper examines the concept, scope and evaluation method of public pension deficit systematically, presents estimates for Chinese urban basic old-age insurance based on various concepts and analyses the effects of fertility, wage, benefit indexation and coverage on the results. It shows that although the pension deficit varies significantly with different methods and assumptions, with population ageing and longevity, on the reasonable expectation of current system, the pension deficit will be increasing with time, the current pension system will face serious financial sustainability problem.