中国外贸条件和实际汇率关系的实证分析

根据相关统计数据的研究,中国贸易条件变化与中美通货膨胀率间存在如下关系:中国贸易条件改善之时,正是中国通货膨胀高于美国之期;而中国贸易条件恶化之时,亦是中国通货膨胀低于美国之期。而购买力平价说又将两国汇率变动情况与两国间通货膨胀率相联接,由此,笔者拟以通货膨胀率为中介,对中国外贸条件和实际汇率变动关系加以实证分析,并对当前人民币汇率走势和解决中国外贸条件恶化的方式提出稍许评述。

Empirical Analysis on the Relations between Terms of Trade of China and Real Exchange Rate

When studying related statistical data, the author finds that there is a special relationbetween the terms of trade of China and the inflation rate of US and China: when the rate ofChina is higher than that of US, the terms of trade of China improves, and vice versa. Because thepurchasing power parity links the variation of foreign exchange rate to the inflation rate, this paperanalyses the relation between the terms of trade of China and the real exchange rate and putsforward some suggestions to improve the terms of trade of China.