走向共同富裕:农民工市民化的财政学考察——基于系统动力学建模及政策优化仿真

实现农民工市民化是现阶段推进农民走向共同富裕的重要方面。文章基于系统动力学仿真讨论农民工市民化成本分担机制,通过Vensim PLE软件构建成本分担模型,分析不同情景下各地区相关主体的因果反馈关系和未来发展走向。研究发现：（1）在保持各项成本和收益增长率不变情况下,社会和政府每年至多负担4%-6%新增流动人口市民化;（2）为减轻个人、企业等社会主体压力,各项经济成本应一定程度向政府部门倾斜;中央需通过增加财政事权比例,鼓励地方政府推进农民工市民化和公共服务均等化;（3）各区域因自身条件和国家政策等异质性面临不同程度财政压力,经济发展水平较高地区可依靠自身财力实施高市民化率,财政缺口较大地区需借助中央支持推行就近城镇化,但中部地区陷入地方自身财力缺乏和中央财政支持不足的两难困境。文章建议从财政开源、财政分担、财政转移等方面推进"以人为核心"的新型城镇化,并由此缩小城乡差距。

A Fiscal Study on the Rural-urban Migrant Workers' Citizenization from the Perspective of Common Prosperity: Based on the System Dynamics Model and Policy Optimization Simulation

The solid realization of the rural-urban migrant workers' citizenization is an important aspect to promote common prosperity of peasants at present. From the perspective of common prosperity, this paper discusses the cost-sharing mechanism of citizenization based on system dynamics simulation, and constructs the cost-sharing model to analyze the causal feedback relationship and future behavior development trend of relevant subjects in different regions under different scenarios with Vensim PLE. The research shows that:(1) Under the same growth rate of costs and benefits, the society and government can afford at most 4%-6% of the floating population citizenization every year; (2) To relieve the financial pressure on individuals, enterprises, and other social subjects, the government is able to take on more costs of citizenization; The central government can assume a greater share of fiscal authority, to encourage local governments to actively promote the citizenization and equalization of public services; (3) Different regions have different financial pressures due to their own conditions and national policies. Regions with a higher level of development can achieve a higher rate of citizenization by relying on their own financial resources, and regions with a larger financial gap can carry out the nearby urbanization gradually with the support of the central government, while the central region is in the predicament of short local financial resources and insufficient central financial support. Therefore, it is suggested to promote the "people-centered" urbanization and narrow the gap between urban and rural from fiscal raises, fiscal sharing and fiscal transfer.