湖北省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

以湖北省1981-2006年数据为样本,分别运用统计方法和计量方法分析了湖北省对外贸易与经济增长的关系。基本结论包括:湖北省货物出口和进口对经济增长的作用表现得并不稳定且不明显,产业结构变动对进出口产品结构的影响较明显;湖北省GDP增长与进口呈单向因果关系,与出口不构成显著的因果关系;从长期看,湖北省GDP与出口、进口之间存在协整关系,即存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,三者是协调一致、同步变动的。从短期来看,进口对经济增长起到了一定的促进作用,且这种促进作用要强于出口,但其本身也较小。

Empirical Analysis on the Relations between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Hu-bei Province

Based on the Hu-bei's data from 1981 to 2006 as the sample,this paper empirically analyses the relations between foreign trade and economic growth using the statistical and econometric methods.The basic conclusions include:the effect of Hu-bei's export and import on the economic growth is not stable and significant,but the influence of industrial structure adjustment on the structure of export and import goods is obvious.The GDP growth of Hu-bei has a kind of one-way causal relationship with import rather than export.In the long run,there exists an equilibrium and stable relationship among Hu-bei's GDP growth,export and import.They are coordinated and simultaneously change with each other.In the short run,the import stimulates the economic growth to a certain degree,and the effect of import is stronger than export,though the import has little influence on the economic growth.