非洲猪瘟疫情对我国肉类价格影响的区域异质性研究

目的 非洲猪瘟疫情暴发导致猪肉等畜产品市场供需结构性、区域性失衡，进而导致肉类价格大幅波动，不利于畜牧业高质量可持续发展。方法 文章通过构建覆盖全国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台、西藏），包括猪牛羊和白条鸡四大肉类价格和非洲猪瘟疫情指数的动态面板数据，运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉等主要肉类价格的冲击和影响在重点、约束、适度发展区和潜力增长区2的区域异质性。结果 （1）非洲猪瘟疫情对不同区域不同肉类价格的影响存在着正负向不趋同的方向性差异，在冲击程度大小和时滞期上均存区域异质性；（2）区域间和区域内不同省份间猪肉等肉类生产流通和供需形势、及非洲猪瘟发生发展程度的差异是非洲猪瘟疫情对这些肉类价格冲击影响异质性产生的主要原因。结论 非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格影响存在较为明显的区域异质性，亟需进一步优化生猪等畜牧产业布局，加快形成区域协同发展格局；健全动物疫病防控体系，建立多方协同联动机制；完善市场风险预警调控机制，加快实现产需顺畅匹配，确保畜产品市场总体平稳运行和畜牧业健康可持续发展。

STUDY ON REGIONAL HETEROGENEITY OF THE IMPACTS FROM AFRICAN SWINE FEVER ON MEAT PRICES IN CHINA

The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) lead to a phased, structural, and regional imbalance in the supply and demand of poke and other livestock products, which is not conducive to the high-quality and sustainable development of animal industry. The dynamic panel data covering 30 provinces (cities or regions excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet) in China was constructed, which included four major meat prices such as pork, beef, mutton, chicken, and the ASF epidemic index. And panel vector auto-regressive(PVAR) model was used to analysis the regional heterogeneity of the impact from ASF epidemic on the prices of pork and other major meats in four regions among the key, restricted, moderate development and potential growth areas. The results showed that the impacts and influence caused by ASF on the meat prices such as pork in the four major regions were different, and the influence on different meat prices was no convergence in direction and time lag among four different regions. The main reasons for the heterogeneity were the differences in the production, circulation, supply and demand situation of pork and other meat between regions and different provinces in one region, and the occurrence and development degree of ASF. Based on the results and the reality of Chinese livestock industry, it is recommended to further optimize the layout of the livestock industry such as pigs and accelerate the formation of a regional coordinated development pattern, to improve the animal disease prevention and control system, and establish a multi-party coordination mechanism. To ensure the overall stable operation of the livestock products market and the healthy and sustainable development of animal industry, the market risk early warning and mechanism and smoothing production and consumption should be enhanced.