老龄化下人均经济增长率变动的实证分析

文章从曼昆、罗默和韦尔的总量生产函数出发,在经济增长模型中加入老龄化因素,据此分析了老龄化所致人口结构变化对于人均经济增长率变动的影响,并对所建构的模型进行了检验,结果表明自1978-2004年老龄化因素下的人均经济增长变动率一直为正,但增长呈现下降趋势.同时对其变动作出了预测分析,结果表明我国在2035年以前处于人均经济增长变动率为正的人口红利期,在2036-2055年则处于人口亏损期.针对分析结论,本文提出了充分利用人口红利期的政策建议和未来研究的方向.

Empirical Analysis of GDP Per Capita Growth Changing Rate under the Aging of Population

Starting from the aggregate production function of Mankiw, Romer and Weil, this paper adds aging factor to the economic growth model and analyzes the effect to GDP per capita growth changing rate arise from population age structure change caused by the aging of population. Moreover, it tests the model and the result shows that from 1978 to 2004, GDP per capita growth changing rate under aging factor is positive with descending trend. This paper also predicts future trend of the growth changing rate and the result shows that before 2035, China will be in the period of population dividend during which GDP per capita growth changing rate is positive, and from 2036 to 2055, China will be in the period of population deficit. On the basis of analyzing result, this paper gives policy suggestions for making full use of population dividend and future research directions.