| 基于ARIMA模型的海南旅游者人数预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张侨,蔡道成.基于ARIMA模型的海南旅游者人数预测[J].科技和产业,2014(4):24-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张侨 蔡道成 |
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| 作者单位： | 琼州学院 旅游管理学院，海南 三亚 572022;琼州学院 旅游管理学院，海南 三亚 572022 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据历年海南接待旅游者人数相关数据,分析海南接待旅游者人数的长期趋势、季节性和随机扰动等特征,应用SPSS软件,建立ARIMA时间序列模型,对海南旅游者人数进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 海南 自回归求积移动平均模型 旅游者人数 |
The Forecasting of the Tourist Numbers of in Hainan by ARIMA Model |
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| ZHANG Qiao,CAI Dao-cheng.The Forecasting of the Tourist Numbers of in Hainan by ARIMA Model[J].SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL,2014(4):24-27. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Qiao CAI Dao-cheng |
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| Institution: | (Tourism Management School,Qiongzhou University,Sanya Hainan 572022,China) |
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| Abstract: | in this paper ,according to the relevant data of tourism numbers received by Hainan for the past few years ,the author analyzes the char-acteristics such as long trend ,seasonality and random interference Constructs ARIMA model and forecasts the tourism numbers in Hainan in few months . |
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| Keywords: | Hainan ARIMA Model tourist numbers |
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