我国银行体系流动性过剩原因的实证检验

近年来“流动性过剩”已成为我国的一个热点问题。本文从宏观角度出发，选取银行存贷差等可以反映流动性过剩的指标，以2000年1月-2007年10月的相关数据为基础，采用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法得出以下结论：流动性过剩同外汇占款、货币发行量、股票市场以及贸易结构存在协整关系，外汇占款、M2、股价可以视为导致存贷差不断扩大即流动性过剩的原因，但目前贸易结构并不是导致我国流动性过剩的直接原因。

The Empirical Test of the Excess Liquidity in the Banking System in China

Firstly,the paper selects five indexes which reflect the excess liquidity in banking system in China,and gets a sample of statistic data from January,2000 to October,2007.Through three technical methods,Unit Root Test,Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test,the paper gets some fruitful conclusions: there is one Co-integration among the excess liquidity,excessive currents,stock index and the trade structure,and all the four factors except trade structure can be regarded as the reasons leading to the excess liquidity.