我国农业经济发展水平及其影响因素实证研究

农业经济发展与农业生产自然制约条件、农业人力资本投入、农业生产资本投入、农业生产技术、农业经济的市场作用、农业生产条件制约因素等密切相关.本文选取反映农业经济增长的13个指标,对其1980-2012年的时间序列运用主成分回归分析与其误差修正模型,研究我国农业经济发展全要素生产率及影响我国农业长期经济发展与短期经济发展的因素.结果表明,影响我国农业长期与短期经济发展的主要因素按影响力大小依次为农业生产条件、市场作用、自然制约条件、农业生产资本、农业生产技术、人力资源.

The Total Factor Productivity and Influence Factors of Agricultural Economy Development of China

Agricultural economic development and natural restriction conditions of agricultural production, agricultural manpower capital investment, capital investment of agricultural production, agricultural production technology, the role of the market, agricultural production conditions, restriction factors are closely related.This article selects 13 indexes that have strong correlations withgross output value of agriculture and can reflect the agricultural economic growth .We use the agricultural development of China's 1980-2012 time series to make an empirical research that base on the principal component regression and error correction model to find out the total factor productivity in agricultural economy development in our country andmain factors that affect thelong-term and short-term agricultural economic development of China .Results showed that the main factors affecting long-term and short-term economic development of agriculture in China according to influence agricultural production conditions, followed by capital markets, natural constraints, agricultural production, agricultural technology,human resources.