中国环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效的影响

在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下,合理设置环境规制强度,提高旅游业碳排放绩效对于实现旅游业高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2001—2019年中国省际面板数据,利用Super-SBM和熵值法分别测度旅游业碳排放绩效及环境规制强度,并进一步运用面板固定效应模型和面板门槛模型探讨环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效的影响。结果表明：（1）研究期内,中国旅游业碳排放绩效整体呈缓慢上升趋势,东部地区呈波动变化趋势,中部地区处于较低水平但始终呈稳定上升态势,西部地区增长最快;中国环境规制整体强度同样呈增长态势,且表现出"东部>西部>中部"的空间分布格局。（2）环境规制与旅游业碳排放绩效之间存在先促进后抑制的"倒U"型关系,当前中国环境规制整体强度处于拐点之前。以技术创新为门槛变量,发现环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效具有显著的技术创新双门槛效应。（3）东部、中部和西部均存在技术创新单一门槛效应。在科技创新水平的影响下,东部地区环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效的促进作用实现飞跃;西部地区科技创新水平较低时,环境规制阻滞旅游业碳排放绩效提升;当科技创新跨过门槛后,环境规制有助于旅游业碳排放绩效提高;中部地区环境规制则始终抑制旅游业碳排放绩效增长。

The impact of environmental regulation on the tourism carbon emissions performance in China

It is of great importance to set the reasonable intensity level of environmental regulation and improve tourism carbon emissions performance for the high-quality development of the tourism industry in the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2001 to 2019, a Super-SBM model and entropy method were applied to measure the tourism carbon emissions performance and environmental regulation intensity. Then fixed-effect model and panel threshold model were used to explore the impact of environmental regulation on the tourism carbon emissions performance. The results show that: (1) The tourism carbon emissions performance slowly increased in China. It fluctuated in the eastern region and steadily increased in the central region. The fastest increase was observed in the western region. The intensity level of environmental regulation was also increasing in China, showing a spacial pattern of "East>West>Centre". (2) The environmental regulation first promoted and then suppressed the tourism carbon emissions performance, showing an "inverted U" feature, with the current environmental regulation intensity in China before the turning point. Taking technological innovation as the threshold variable, environmental regulation had a significant double threshold effect on the tourism carbon emissions performance. (3) Single threshold could be found in the eastern, central, and western regions. In the eastern region, the effect of environmental regulation on tourism carbon emissions performance was significant under the influence of technological innovation. In the western region, when the technological innovation level was low, the environmental regulation had a negative impact on the tourism carbon emissions performance. However, when technological innovation passed the threshold, environmental regulation had a positive impact on tourism carbon emissions performance. In the central region, environmental regulation has always had a negative effect on tourism carbon emissions performance.