Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An identification robust econometric analysis

We use identification-robust methods to assess a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali – Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195–222] specification, for U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational-expectations assumption, and a modification which uses survey-based data on inflation expectations. The two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (iii) price adjustment frequency. Overall, the results provide some support to the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our analysis underscores the need for employing identification-robust inference methods.