非现金支付结算对现金流通的影响研究

近年来,随着支付基础设施的不断建成和完善、支付服务组织的健全以及社会信用的发展,非现金支付结算工具的推广应用越来越广泛。本文从理论和实证两个方面研究了非现金支付结算工具的发展对区域现金流通的影响,探索非现金支付结算对流通中现金影响的传导途径,创造性地使用现金结算量作为现金流通状况的测度指标,在进行多元线性回归分析后,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)探讨各类非现金支付工具发展对现金流通的影响程度,认为非现金支付结算方式对现金的替代效果不明显。在对此进行原因分析的基础上,本文得出"增量替代"效应的新思路。

A Study on the Influence of Non-cash Payment and Settlement on Cash Circulation

Recently,non-cash payment and settlement tools(NCPST) have been used wider and wider as the infrastructure of payment and settlement improves and social credit system develops.In this paper,the authors study the influence of the development of NCPST on regional cash circulation and probe into its transmission channel.the authors sinnovatively use cash settlement as the measuring index of cash circulation situation,applies VAR model to study the influencing extent of NCPST on cash circulation after multiple linear regression and argue that the substitution effect of non-cash payment and settlement on cash is not significant.Based on that analysis,the paper puts forward a new method named "incremental alternative".