股票价格波动对银行稳定影响的理论及经验分析

商业银行直接或间接地参与股票市场,就会因股票价格的波动影响银行资产质量进而影响银行资产负债表和银行稳定。理论和实践证明股票价格的急剧波动和银行部门不稳定性扩散之间存在紧密的联系;同时,银行信贷的扩张对股票价格的波动有很大影响。对我国的经验分析表明:银行间信贷市场与股票市场的资金连通存在较强的相关性;上市银行脆弱度与上证综合指数的相关性在5%水平上显著。在综合经营的大背景下,应加强对我国金融脆弱性的识别和监管,疏通货币市场与股票市场正常的资金联系,加强对商业银行的审慎管理,银行自身也要加强风险管理。

A Theoretical and Experiential Analysis of the Influence of Fluctuating Stock Price on Banking Stability

When commercial banks get involved in stock market directly or indirectly, the fluctuation of stock price will affect their assets' quality and consequently their balance sheet and stability. Theory and practice show that drastic fluctuation of stock price is closely linked with instability spreading among banking departments. Credit expansion has a strong impact on stock price fluctuation. According to our analysis of China's experience in the past, inter-bank credit market is interrelated closely with capital movement in stock market; the correlation between the fragility of listed banks and Shanghai Composite Index is noticeable over 5%. Against the backdrop of comprehensive operation, financial fragility should be further identified and supervised, capital relationship between monetary market and stock market should be normalized and prudent management of commercial banks should be strengthened. Moreover, commercial banks should also reinforce risk management on their own.