从OECD国家发展历程看我国2020年能源电力消费

详细分析了OECD 10个主要国家在工业化进程中的能源和电力消费趋势。分析结果表明：在工业化和现代化的进程中，电力消费的增长速度始终快于一次能源消费；后发工业化国家的能源和电力消费增速远快于先行工业化国家，各国电力消费比重都在不断攀升。因此，在21世纪中叶我国全面实现工业化、基本实现现代化之前，无论是能源电力消费的总量还是人均指标，我国的一次能源和电力消费都将伴随着工业化进程继续快速增长，而目前我国接近发达国家的电力消费比重还将继续上升。情景分析表明，2020年，我国人均能源消费将达3.18～4.95tce，能源消费总量将达44.2亿～68.8亿tce；人均用电量增至5240～8090kW·h，全社会用电量达到7.3万亿～11.2万亿kW·h，需要15.8亿～24.4亿kW发电装机容量，人均装机约1.137～1.755kW。

Primary Energy and Electricity Consumption Forecast of China from Perspective of Historical Trend of OECD Countries

A detailed analysis of the historical trends of primary energy and electricity consumption in ten OECD countries in the process of industrialization shows that,electricity consumption always outgrows the primary energy consumption,and the increase rates of the energy and electricity consumption in the late-developed countries are often higher than those in the early-developed countries; and the percentage of electricity in the entire energy consumption increases with furthering of industrialization. Thus,be...