中国经济增长与环境污染--基于广义脉冲响应函数法的实证研究

本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,考察了我国1985-2003年期间6类环境污染指标与人均GDP之间的长期动态影响特征.冲击响应分析结果表明,一方面经济增长是影响我国污染排放的重要原因,另一方面环境污染对经济增长也存在着反向作用,然而后者具有一定滞后效应.方差分解结果显示人均GDP是解释各类污染排放的预测方差的重要变量,然而污染排放对经济增长的预测方差贡献度则相对较小.

China's Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution:An Empirical Test Based on Generalized Impulse Response Function

By employing generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,which are based on VAR method,this paper aims at investigating the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution by using a Chinese time series data set of six pollution indicators during 1985-2003.The empirical results suggest that there may indeed have existed a tradeoff between economic growth and environmental protection in China's development.That is,rapid economic growth may have led to more pollution emissions on the one hand,while environmental pollution have may led to reduced economic growth with some delay on the other.And the results of variance decomposition analysis suggest that in general GDP per capita is the main variable to explain the forecasting mean square error of the pollution variable but it's not true vice versa.