基于舆情演化的重大水利工程项目决策信息传导机制设计

研究重大水利工程项目决策信息传导中舆情的微观演化过程,对于降低社会稳定风险、促进决策的顺利落实具有重要意义。基于Agent建模方法,运用复杂网络理论建立舆情传播的社会网络模型,并借助NetLogo 6.0.3平台仿真,将无外界干预以及引入政府、媒体、社会组织后的舆情演化情况进行对比。结果表明:政府的适当介入能够有效降低群体性事件的发生概率,同时增强意见领袖的作用。但要根除不良舆情的土壤,还要依靠相关社会组织对公众的引导作用。此外,媒体对舆情演化具有双重影响,需加以规范。从信息传播、信息反馈和舆情监测3个方面入手,构建重大水利工程项目决策信息传导机制,以实现决策信息的充分有效传播。

Design of transmission mechanism of decision-making information of large hydraulic projects based on evolution of public opinion

The study on the micro-evolution process of public opinion in the transmission of decision-making information of large hydraulic projects is of great significance for reducing the risk of social stability and promoting the smooth implementation of decision-making. Based on the Agent modeling method, a social network model for disseminating public opinions is established by means of the complex network theory. With the help of NetLogo 6. 0. 3 platform, the evolution of public opinions without external intervention is compared with that with the introduction of government, media and social organizations. The results show that the appropriate government involvement can effectively reduce the probability of mass incidents and enhance the role of opinion leaders. However, in order to eradicate the soil of bad public opinions, the public should be guided by the relevant social organizations. In addition, the media has the dual influences on the evolution of public opinions, which needs to be regulated. From the three aspects of information dissemination, information feedback and public opinion monitoring, the transmission mechanism of decision-making information of large hydraulic projects is designed to realize the full and effective dissemination of decision-making information.