Improving market timing of time series momentum in the Chinese stock market

ABSTRACT

This paper is the first study to present firm-level evidence that the time-series momentum (TSMOM) strategies with look-back-period k of 10 to 200 days outperform the buy-and-hold strategy (BH) on individual stocks in the Chinese stock market. We document that the optimal k* generating the best performance is different across assets and varies over time. We hence propose a model to predict the asset-specific and time-dependent k*, and examine the performance of the TSMOM strategies with the predicted k*. Our analysis shows that using the time-varying predicted k* substantially improves the predictability of the TSMOM strategies. Our new model and findings shed the light on trading strategy for both academia and applied investment practitioners.