The Housing Market Effects of Local Home Purchase Restrictions: Evidence from Beijing |
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| Authors: | Weizeng Sun Siqi Zheng David M Geltner Rui Wang |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute for Economic and Social Research,Jinan University,Guangzhou,China;2.Hang Lung Center for Real Estate and Department of Construction Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing,China;3.Center for Real Estate,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,USA;4.Department of Urban Studies and Planning,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,USA;5.Luskin School of Public Affairs,UCLA,Los Angeles,USA;6.School of Advanced International Studies,The Johns Hopkins University,Washington,USA |
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| Abstract: | Home prices have surged in major Chinese cities, leading to concerns of asset price bubbles and housing affordability. The policy of home purchase restrictions (HPR) has been one of China’s harshest housing market interventions to squeeze out speculative demand and dampen the soaring home prices. Beijing was the first city to implement the HPR. Employing the regression discontinuity design technique, we find that Beijing’s HPR policy triggered a 17–24 % decrease in resale price, a drop in the price-to-rent ratio of about a quarter of its mean value, and a deep (1/2 to 3/4) reduction in the transaction volume of the for-sale market, with no significant change in the rent or the transaction volume of rental units. In submarkets where housing supply was less elastic, the effects of the HPR were larger in price and smaller in quantity, suggesting that wealthy buyers likely benefited more from the HPR. The scope of the analysis does not allow conclusions regarding the persistence or longevity of these effects. |
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