中国货币政策独立性和有效性检验——基于1994-2004年数据

基于葛兰杰因果方法对1994-2004年中国货币政策独立性和有效性进行的检验结果显示:在独立性方面,利率不是货币数量的葛兰杰原因,说明考察期内中国货币政策总体上保持了对外独立性,否定了钉住汇率制度是造成中国货币政策不独立的先验判断;在有效性方面,仅显示货币数量M0对物价有肯定的正向影响,货币数量M1和利率对产出及物价的影响力均不显著。这意味着货币政策效果不理想的主要原因是中国金融体系发育不成熟、企业治理结构不完善、市场机制不健全等内部因素,而不应归咎于传统钉住汇率制度的外部制约。因此,提高货币政策效果的策略应该是加速金融体系的发展,完善企业治理结构,而不是放弃保持汇率基本稳定的汇率管理方针。

The Effects and Autonomy of Monetary Policy in China from 1994 to 2004

This paper empirically examines the effects and autonomy of China's monetary policy using vector autoregressive model(VAR) and Granger causality methodology.The preliminary results based on quarterly data from 1994 to 2004 indicate that(1) the autonomy of China's monetary policy maintains systematically in the inspected period and(2)that interest rates are not the Granger cause for real GDP and CPI except that M0 Granger causes CPI.The reason for the weak effectiveness of China's monetary policy is not the exterior restriction with the old pegged exchange rate system but the internal factors which block the pipeline of monetary policy.Alternative strategies to improve the effect of monetary policy are to accelerate the reforms of the current mandatory bank settlement system and perfect managerial mechanism of enterprise to enhance the sensitiveness of market agencies to policies rather than to abandon the policy to maintain the yuan's basic stability.