| Abstract: | The authors begin by outlining a multi-scenario technique for coping with future uncertainty in assessments of the business environment for energy planning. The discussion then leads to a quantification of world energy demand under two exploratory scenarios, whose results are compared with published forecasts. Analysis of the components of demand highlights the importance of the Third World. After a review of the world's fossil fuel resources, the likely effective availability of oil and other energy sources (including nuclear power and the renewables) is set against the scenario levels of energy demand. The paper ends with a summary of the implications for action in the field of energy. |
