开放条件下中国货币与经济关联度变动原因实证研究

本文运用动态条件相关(DCC)方法估计中国各层次货币与实体经济的关联度。研究发现,1994年前,关联度始终在低位波动,之后大幅提高,总体呈上升趋势。通过在模型中引入金融深化度和经济开放度,本文从不同的侧面解释了货币与经济关联度变动的原因。虽然金融深化度和经济开放度对关联度的影响程度随货币层次的提高而增强,但作用方向却不完全相同;金融深化度越高,经济开放度越低,关联度越强,这表明金融深化理论与中国国情相适应。这对于改革开放具有较强的现实意义。政府通过优先发展金融,深化金融体制改革,能够提高货币对经济增长的效能,促进经济结构的转型和经济持续增长。

The Study on the Cause of the Variational Correlation between Money and Economy

Using the dynamic conditional correlation model, this paper analyzes correlation between the strata of money supply and economy. We find that the correlation is lower before 1994, then higher, but the trend of the correlation is going up as a whole. Introducing the financial depth and economic openness into model, this paper explains why the correlation varies. The effect of both financial depth and economic openness on correlation increases with the improvement of the strata of money, but the direction of effect is not same; the financial depth is higher, and the correlation is stronger. This means that the financial deepening theory accords with China, and this has strong practical significance to Chinese reform and openness. Government develops the finance and deepens the financial system reform, and this can improve effect of money to economic growth, and promote transmission of economic structure and sustainable growth.