中国财政周期性波动的经济稳定效应分析

经济周期是经济增长过程中不可避免的现象。为尽可能避免经济运行出现过度波动,财政政策成为各国政府调控经济运行的常用工具。通过用HP滤波方法剔除掉中国产出、财政收入、财政支出和财政赤字中的趋势成分后,用产出缺口、财政收入缺口、财政支出缺口和财政赤字缺口进行计量分析,发现中国财政周期性波动中的财政赤字波动对宏观经济产生了明显的稳定效应,并且随着市场经济的逐步完善,政府调控经济运行的能力也在逐步增强。

Economy Stabilization Effect of the Fluctuations in Fiscal Cycle of China

Economy cycle is an inevitable phenomena during economy development.Fiscal policies are normal tools used by every country to prevent excess fluctuations in economy's running.When getting off the trend component in china's output,fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and fiscal deficit by Hodrick-Prescott Filter,we can analyse macro-economy fluctuations by output gap,fiscal revenue gap,fiscal expenditure gap and fiscal deficit gap.The conclusion is that china's fluctuation of fiscal cycle,especially deficit gap's fluctuation,promotes the smooth running of economy.And accompanying the improvement of market economy,government's ability to control economy running is also strengthened.