Agricultural trade liberalization and poverty in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine the impacts of trade liberalization on China's agriculture, in general, and poverty, in particular. The impacts on agriculture are analyzed by commodity and by region. Because different farmers (especially those in different income brackets) produce diverse sets of commodities, the main part of our paper analyzes the effects on households and their implications for the poverty through the simulation of household production and consumption changes in response to the trade-induced market prices changes on a disaggregated (by province), household-level basis. The results of our analysis lead to the conclusion that, unlike fears expressed in the popular press and by some scholars, the positive impacts of trade liberalization are actually greater than the negative ones. Although other effects on the rural economy from trade liberalization of other subsectors (such as textiles) may be equally large or even larger, this study's focus on the agricultural sector shows that there will be an impact from agricultural trade liberalization and that the net impact is positive for the average farm household in China. However, policymakers still need to be concerned. Not all households and not all commodities will be treated equally. Our findings show that poorer households, especially those in the provinces in the western parts of China, will be hurt. The main reason is that the farmers in Western China are currently producing commodities that are receiving positive rates of protection, rates of protection that will fall with additional trade liberalization. Hence, if policy makers want to minimize the impacts, there needs to be an effort to minimize the effect on these households either by direct assistance or by eliminating constraints that are keeping households from becoming more efficient by shifting their production more towards those commodities that will benefit from trade liberalization.