| 汽油市场垄断溢价及消费者福利分析:基于中国市场结构的多主体模型结果 |
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| 引用本文： | 从荣刚.汽油市场垄断溢价及消费者福利分析:基于中国市场结构的多主体模型结果[J].石家庄经济学院学报,2012,35(4):30-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 从荣刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 瑞典隆德大学环境与气候研究中心,隆德22362 |
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| 摘 要： | 自从1998年起,中国成品油市场定价机制已经进行了四次改革,市场定价将是未来的发展趋势。但是鉴于现在成品油市场尚处于寡头垄断的市场结构,完全放松管制可能出现无法预料的严重后果,采用基于Agent的计算经济学的方法,建立了基于信念学习的中国汽油市场模型,并重点分析了垄断溢价形成的影响因素,以及消费者的刚性需求和收入约束对消费者福利的影响。通过对不同原油价格水平下汽油市场的模拟,得到了描述消费者生存率的二次方程。通过建立虚拟变量模型,发现当消费者决策受收入约束时,油价、收入和刚性需求对其福利的边际影响都相应变小。模型的结果对燃油税政策的制定有一定的参考意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 汽油市场 Agent模拟 信念学习 刚性需求 收入约束 |
An Analysis of Monopoly Premium and Consumer Welfare in Chinese Petrol Market：Results from a Multi-agent Model |
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| CONG Rong-gang.An Analysis of Monopoly Premium and Consumer Welfare in Chinese Petrol Market：Results from a Multi-agent Model[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics,2012,35(4):30-38. |
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| Authors: | CONG Rong-gang |
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| Institution: | CONG Rong-gang1,2(1.North China Electric Power University,Beijing,102206;2.Lund University,Lund,22362,Sweden) |
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| Abstract: | Since 1998,the pricing mechanism of refined oil market in China has reformed four times.Market pricing will be the future trend.This paper uses the method of agent-based computational economics to construct a free gasoline market model.By simulations of the gasoline market at different levels of crude oil price,a quadratic equation which can describe the survival rate of consumers is obtained.Based on a dummy variable model,we find that when the decisions of consumers are constrained by their income,the margin impacts of crude oil price,income and rigid demand on consumer welfares become smaller. |
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| Keywords: | gasoline market simulations based on multi-agent belief learning rigid demand income constraints |
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