城投债对地区产能过剩的影响：促进还是抑制*

在构建城投债影响产能过剩的理论基础上，以我国2004-2016年地级市面板数据为样本，本文检验了城投债影响产能过剩的具体效应和相关机制。研究发现：城投债与地区产能过剩之间呈现U型关系；其中城投债对产能过剩的影响在中西部地区、南方地区、大城市和金融危机爆发后更为显著；机制检验表明，地方政府借助城投债压低工业用地价格和投资交通基础设施会加剧产能过剩，且压低工业用地价格带来的效应更为严重。因此，本文从适度控制债务规模、改善体制激励措施和完善要素定价机制等方面提出相应建议。

THE IMPACT OF URBAN INVESTMENT BONDS ON REGIONAL OVERCAPACITY: PROMOTION OR SUPPRESSION

Based on the theory of urban investment bonds affecting overcapacity and taking the panel data of prefecture level cities in China from 2004 to 2016 as a sample, this paper examines the specific effects and related mechanisms of urban investment bonds on overcapacity. The results show that: there is a “U shaped” relationship between urban investment bonds and regional overcapacity; and the impact of urban investment bonds on overcapacity is more significant in the central and western regions, the southern regions, large cities and in post financial crisis era. Mechanism analysis shows that local governments use urban investment bonds to lower the price of industrial land and to invest in transportation infrastructure to increase excess capacity, and the effect of lowering the price of industrial land is even more serious. Therefore, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions in moderately controlling debt scale, ameliorating system incentive measures and improving factor pricing mechanism.