政府创新偏好、创新要素流动与制造业升级

利用2004—2019年中国内地30个省域面板数据，系统考察创新人员流动和创新资本流动对制造业升级的影响效应及政府创新偏好的调节效应。结果表明，创新人员流动和创新资本流动均对制造业高级化、合理化有显著积极作用。影响机制检验表明，创新人员流动和创新资本流动通过提升创新能力间接推动制造业高级化、合理化；政府创新偏好在创新资本流动与制造业高级化、合理化以及创新人员流动与制造业高级化之间有显著正向调节作用，但对创新人员流动与制造业合理化的调节作用不显著；在两类创新要素流动推动制造业升级过程中，政府创新偏好的调节作用呈现非线性特征。结论对引导创新要素合理流动，推动制造业高级化、合理化发展具有重要借鉴意义。

Government Innovation Preference,Innovation Factor Flow and Manufacturing Upgrading

China's economy has changed from high-speed growth to high-quality development. The high-quality development of manufacturing industry has become an important support to promote the national high-quality economic development，and it is an important part of modern economic system construction. Meanwhile，in the current stage，China's manufacturing industry is at the middle and low end of the value chain，and high-end manufacturing is underdeveloped. Therefore，there is an urgent need to transform the industrial development from the traditional tangible factors of production driven model to innovation driven model. Innovation factors are important strategic resources for implementing innovation-driven strategy and promoting industrial upgrading. At the same time，with the implementation of the innovation driven development strategy and change the achievements appraisal，local governments also strengthen their support for industrial innovation activities through financial investment in science and technology to attract innovative elements. Under this background，can the innovative factors flow promote manufacturing upgrade? What effect does government innovation preference play in the process of manufacturing upgrading driven by innovation factor flow? It is of great practical significance to guide the flow of innovation factors and promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry by clarifying these problems .#br#This paper systematically reveals the influence mechanism of innovation factor flow on manufacturing upgrading and the nonlinear adjustment mechanism of government innovation preference. Firstly，innovation factor flow has a positive promoting effect on the advanced and rationalization of manufacturing industry. Innovation factor flow has the spatial knowledge spillover effect and the spatial resource allocation effect,both of which can accelerate the spread of new knowledge，new technology and new mode in different geographical space units，improve the efficiency of resource allocation and then promote the advanced and rationalization of manufacturing industry. Secondly，on the aspect of the nonlinear adjustment mechanism of government innovation preference on manufacturing upgrading, government innovation preference can enhance the promotion effect of innovation factor flow on manufacturing industry upgrading. However，there is a range of government innovation subsidy intensity for enterprise innovation，for it is not conducive to enterprises' innovation activities if the intensity is too low or too high.#br#In terms of empirical research，based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019，this paper uses the spatial Durbin model，mediating effect model and threshold regression analysis methods to systematically examine the impact of innovation personnel flow,innovation capital flow on manufacturing upgrading and the moderating effect of government innovation preference. The results show that firstly，both innovation personnel flow and innovation capital flow have significant positive effects on the advanced manufacturing and rationalization of manufacturing industry. Secondly，the path test shows that innovation personnel flow and innovation capital flow indirectly promote the advanced manufacturing and rationalization of manufacturing industry through improving innovation capacity. Thirdly，government innovation preference has a significant positive moderating effect on the process of innovation capital flow driving the advanced manufacturing and rationalization of manufacturing industry，while for innovation personnel flow, government innovation preference can promote the advanced manufacturing，but has no significant promoting effect on the rationalization of manufacturing industry.Forthly，in the process of manufacturing upgrading driven by the flow of two types of innovation factors，the moderating effect of government innovation preference is nonlinear. #br#Based on the above conclusion，in order to accelerate manufacturing upgrading，this article puts forward the following policy recommendations. The first is to promote the rational flow of innovation factors.The second is to strengthen the industrial connection with the geographical proximity or the same economic level of the region and plan industrial spatial layout rationally. The third is to improve industrial innovation capacity continuously. The fourth is to attach importance and give full play to the positive regulating role of government science and technology expenditure in the process of innovation factor flow promoting manufacturing upgrading, and it’s vital to set a reasonable range of innovation subsidy.#br#