颠覆性技术关注方向演化研究

关注颠覆性技术创新方向演变对于构建颠覆性技术“发现—遴选—培养”机制，挖掘重大颠覆性技术选题具有重要意义。利用三螺旋协同性测度模型量化政府、产业、学术界3类主体对颠覆性技术关注方向的协同程度，构建颠覆性技术行动者网络，利用社会网络分析法解析网络结构形式下政、产、学三方关注颠覆性技术创新的耦合方向，探究高度耦合技术方向的演化特点。最后，获得技术关注方向协同性、技术关注耦合方向特征、技术关注方向耦合时间时序特征、技术关注方向耦合机构特征、高度耦合技术方向演化特征5个方面的结论。

Profits of Disruptive Technological Innovation Concerning Direction

Focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the outline of the long-term goals for 2035, China has actively carried out the forward-looking layout of disruptive technologies and seized the initiative in scientific and technological development. The diffusion process in the development of technological innovation involves various institutions or organizations, and the innovation system presents complex characteristics such as diversification of subjects and dynamic integration. In this context, to achieve disruptive innovation, it is inseparable from a collaborative innovation ecosystem in which all parties (the government, industry, and universities) work together to participate. The research on the evolution of disruptive technology innovation can effectively guide various domestic innovation entities to participate in the forward-looking layout and innovation of disruptive technology, and explore the establishment of a disruptive technology discovery-selection funding mechanism. It’s supportive for production, academia and research entities to actively explore the "discovery-selection-cultivation" mechanism of disruptive technologies and discover major disruptive technologies .#br#This paper adopts a large-scale research on disruptive technologies, and attempts to analyze the evolution of disruptive technologies by combining quantitative analysis of triple helix synergy with social network analysis. The triple Helix innovation theory is often used to describe the collaborative innovation relationship between government-industry-university, providing a research paradigm to analyze the interaction between government, industry, and universities in the process of innovation. The triple Helix model has an effective synergy measurement model to quantitatively analyze the degree of collaborative innovation among the government, industry, and universities, so as to analyze the consistency of the government, industry, and academia's attention to disruptive technologies from a macro level evolution characteristics. On the other hand, Actor Network Theory (ANT) believes that science and technology practice is a network dynamic process formed by the connection and construction of multiple heterogeneous components. It can integrate the macro analysis and micro analysis of technology, and expand the social construction of technology to the construction of science, technology and society. Therefore, to build a comprehensive heterogeneous network composed of human elements represented by the institutions that propose disruptive technologies and non-human elements represented by disruptive technologies, we can analyze the changes in the focus of disruptive technological innovation under the network structure from the micro level, especially It is a disruptive technology that has attracted the attention of the government, industry and academia.#br#A research framework is proposed to explore the evolution of disruptive technological innovation based on the combination of quantitative analysis of the triple helix synergy measurement model and social network analysis. First, we use government websites, company websites, scientific and technological reports, scientific papers, academic monographs and other public information channels as data sources, and use online research to obtain the list of disruptive technologies identified by various institutions. Secondly, according to the degree to which disruptive technologies are recognized by institutions, disruptive technologies are divided into three categories. Then, based on the overall analysis at the macro level, the quantitative analysis method of the triple helix synergy measurement model is used to calculate the degree of consistency of the government, industry, and academia in the direction of disruptive technology. Finally, based on the content analysis at the micro level, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of the disruptive technology concerned with the coupling direction under the network structure.#br#This paper finds the following characteristics of the evolution of government-industry-university-research coupling attention of disruptive technologies. The degree of coordination among government, industry, and academia on the direction of disruptive technological innovation has been increased year by year, and the government, industry, and academia have gradually aligned their focus on disruptive technology. In the future, the discovery of disruptive technology directions or technology supply should focus on the four fields of new materials, advanced manufacturing and automation, biology and new medicine, and electronic information. The discovery or cultivation of disruptive technology directions should focus on the technology directions that all institutions pay attention to in a short period of time. Such technologies can gain the common attention of all parties in a short period of time, indicating that the technology has a great potential influence. For the discovery or cultivation of future destructive technical direction, we should not only pay attention to the technical direction, but also take into account the technical direction of government, industry, academia and research. The basic research of potential disruptive technologies is still in the stage of rapid development.The cultivation of future disruptive technologies cannot be separated from the support of basic research,and the role of basic research cannot be ignored in the cultivation of disruptive technologies.#br#