新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征

新兴技术这柄“双刃剑”虽然给国家带来新发展动能，但也同时引发诸多社会风险，如何化解新兴技术社会风险成为新兴技术治理面临的难题。前瞻性治理研究为新兴技术社会风险化解提供了一些思考，但是相关研究较为分散和模糊，相关经验难以奏效。运用文本分析法和层次分析法，聚焦治理主体、过程和结果3个要素，提炼新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征，并在中国情境下检验其适用性。结果表明，公众参与结果纳入既定政策议程、否决权、新兴技术公众参与法律法规等前瞻性特征得到专家一致认同，认为它们是新兴技术社会风险化解的必要条件。研究结论对提高新兴技术社会风险治理绩效具有一定理论启示。

Prospective Governance Characteristics to Resolve Social Risks of Emerging Technologies

The social risk of emerging technologies including nuclear power, nanotechnology, biology, information and cognition technology is a general term for various negative effects that may bring to human society in the process of technological development. For example, before people have reached a scientific conclusion about the cross-generational impact of genetically modified food, a large number of genetically modified crop materials on the domestic and foreign markets have entered the production and processing chain. Technology is originally neutral, and people's improper application has caused technological risks. The Collingridge dilemma brought about by the social risks of emerging technologies has begun to emerge. Some countries use expert decision-making mode or public participation to resolve technical risks. Because expert decision-making is difficult to fully consider the public interests and value demands, while public participation has problems with opinions conflict and limited decision-making efficiency, some countries and regions have begun to actively explore prospective governance. Such as the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States try to solve the lack of ethics and morality in the design of emerging technology products, and they launch the participatory or expected governance practices before the promotion of emerging technology products. In view of the fact that the existing prospective governance research is relatively scattered and vague, this study explores and examines the prospective governance characteristics of the social risk resolution of emerging technologies in multiple cases, and try to answer the core scientific question: what are the obvious characteristics of prospective governance for social risk reduction of emerging technologies?#br#Current research on prospective governance is still relatively scattered and vague. This study integrates prospective governance into structure-process-result factors, identifies the causal relationship between prospective governance and collective action, and constructs an analysis framework. The research data comes from the Web of Science, China Knowledge Network CSSCI and other databases, and it retrieves 10 cases of representative emerging technology governance after 2000. The study uses the text analysis method to extract the prospective governance characteristics of governance subject, governance process, governance result, and conducts expert inspection on it.#br#The research has extracted 12 prospective governance characteristics with various effects on achieving collective action. The governance structure features include science and technology committee mechanism, multi-subject collaborative decision-making mechanism, independent professional institution, and independent third-party evaluation. The characteristics of the process include official media propaganda, the stage of government decision-making information disclosure, the depth of public participation, the consistency of information transmission and acquisition, and the public setting issues, and the governance result characteristics include public participation results into the established decision-making agenda, veto power, and emerging technology public participate in laws and regulations. After two stages of empirical testing based on the analytic hierarchy process, the research results show that firstly experts agree that the most important characteristics are governance results, and governance processes characteristics are necessary conditions for collective action, but it is not a sufficient condition. Second, the study found that the characteristics of social group resistance and external causes are special variables of prospective governance in China. In the case, the characteristic of social group resistance is that experts and local governments raise objections to the central government, and public opinion strongly urges the cessation of technical project construction. At the same time, the characteristic of external cause is that the outbreak of technological risks has aggravated the public's panic about technological projects, strengthened the central government's supervision of technological projects, and led to the immediate cessation of the construction of technological projects. Meanwhile the scale of social group resistance has also played a very important role in changing technological decisions. Third, the subject-procedure-object framework proposed by Chilvers and Longhurst has been further improved. This study initially established the relationship between the prospective governance and collective action. Prospective governance influences collective actions through three factors of governance structure, process and results. There is also a certain degree of mutual influence among the three factors. Further research needs to expand the scope of emerging technologies governance cases or focus on a certain type of emerging technology governance cases, and combine quantitative research to verify the causal relationship among various factors.#br#