增长、资本形成与技术选择:解释中国经济增长下降的长期因素

对于一个劳动力供给如此富裕的经济,中国的经济增长率为什么在90年代中期以来持续下降?本文依赖"新古典"的增长理论对此做了解释。文章首先发现了改革以来中国的资本-产出比率与增长率之间存在着一个显著的负相关关系,然后给出了对这一关系的理论解释。文章认为,出现这个负相关关系的主要原因是资本的形成对经济增长表现出不敏感。在此基础上文章指出,中国经济增长率在近年来的持续下降可以由资本形成过快、从而投资收益出现持续恶化来解释。而不应简单地理解为(短期)总需求不足的结果。这意味着,缺乏一个有效率的投资体制和金融体系是中国经济未来持续增长的严重制约。

GROWTH,CAPITAL FORMATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHOICE:WHY HAS CHINA''S ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE BEEN DECLINING?

Why has Chinese economic growth rate been declining since the mid- 19907 This paper develops an explanatory framework based on neo-classical growth model.First,a negative correlation between capital-output ratio and the growth rate in post-reform era has been found and the paper provides an explanation.The paper argues that such a negative correlation is a result of insensitivity of capital formation to GDP growth,and thus the declining growth facing Chinese economy since the mid- 1990 may be largely accoun...