资本账户开放与科技金融发展:“并驾齐驱”抑或“此消彼长”

研究基于时变参数的结构向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-SVAR）动态考察资本账户开放、科技金融发展与经济高质量发展相互关系，并通过对资本账户开放与科技金融发展关键时点的选择，详细探究了两者相互关系及对经济高质量发展的时变影响。研究结论表明：（1）资本账户开放虽然短期内能推动科技金融的发展，但长期正向作用并不稳健，具有明显滞后特征。（2）当前科技金融发展不能稳健推动资本账户开放，但在经济危机时期促进效应最为显著。（3）两者不同时点的观测显示，深化资本账户开放的改革对科技金融的正向影响随滞后期数的增加而逐渐弱化，而将创业板上市却能进一步推动资本账户的开放。（4）资本账户开放与科技金融发展多数时期均能推动经济高质量发展，但推动效用存在显著差异。资本账户开放的滞后影响具有异质性，而科技金融发展的正向推动作用波动明显。因此，我国应加快资本账户"渠道式"开放改革和科技金融集聚化发展进程，在促进两者良性互动的同时，疏通支持经济长期、稳健高质量发展的渠道。

Capital Account Liberalization and Technology Finance Development: “Neck and Neck” or “Shift From One to Another”

The study dynamically examines the interrelationship between capital account liberalization, technology finance development and high-quality economic development based on a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (SV-TVP-SVAR), and explores in detail the interrelationship and time-varying impact on high-quality economic development through the selection of key time points of capital account liberalization and technology finance development. The findings show that (1) although capital account liberalization can promote the development of science and technology finance in the short term, the long-term positive effect is not robust and has obvious lagging characteristics. (2) The current development of science and technology finance cannot robustly promote capital account opening, but the promotion effect is most significant in times of economic crisis. (3) Observations at different time points of both show that the positive effect of the reform to deepen capital account opening on science and technology finance gradually weakens with increasing lags, while listing the GEM to the market can further promote capital account opening. (4) Both capital account liberalization and technology finance development can promote high-quality economic development in most periods, but there are significant differences in the promotion utility. The lagging effect of capital account opening is heterogeneous, while the positive driving effect of science and technology finance development fluctuates significantly.