全面创新改革试验政策对科技成果转化的影响效应

以广东、安徽和四川全面创新改革试验区为研究对象，运用合成控制法，构造合成粤皖川、合成广东、合成安徽、合成四川，通过对比真实试验区技术市场成交额实际值与合成试验区技术市场成交额的反事实估计值，探讨全面创新改革试验政策对试验区科技成果转化的总体效应和个体效应。研究结果表明：全面创新改革试验政策总体上显著促进试验区省份科技成果转化，其中，全面创新改革试验政策对广东、四川科技成果转化具有显著促进效应，而对安徽科技成果转化的效应不显著；政策效应在政策实施当年即已显现，两年后明显增强；科技经费投入、经济规模、技术成熟度、人口集聚、产业结构、创新能力等因素对科技成果转化具有显著影响。

Impact of Comprehensive Innovation Reform Experimental Policy on the Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements

Comprehensive innovation reform experiment is a practice of public policy innovation with Chinese characteristics. It is the traditional continuity of governance model like "touch stone across the river" and "gradualism", and also the realistic response to comprehensively deepening reform and modernizing national governance system and ability. At present, the first round of comprehensive innovation reform experiment has come to an end, and the follow-up experiment will continue to advance steadily. In 2020, it was proposed to "deepen a new round of comprehensive innovation reform experiment" in the Report on the Work of the Government . It is also mentioned in the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Vision for 2035. Since comprehensive innovation reform experiment is vital in implementing innovation-driven development strategy and promoting national economic and social development, it is essential to evaluate the policy effect. In recent years, scholars have made beneficial exploration in policy effect evaluation on the basis of policy goals, but they haven’t analyzed the impact of comprehensive innovation reform experimental policy on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements yet. Therefore, this paper focuses on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements as the main policy goal, and discusses the policy effect.#br#Taking Guangdong, Anhui, Sichuan comprehensive innovation reform pilot zones as research object, this study utilizes synthetic control methods to construct synthetic pilot zones (which is a combination of Guangdong-Anhui-Sichuan), synthetic Guangdong, synthetic Anhui and synthetic Sichuan. By comparing the actual value of the technology market turnover in the real pilot zones with the counterfactual estimate value of the technology market turnover in the synthetic pilot zones, the overall effect and individual effect of the comprehensive innovation reform experimental policy on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements of the three pilot zones are analyzed. Besides, in order to ensure the robustness of causal inference, it conducts random permutation test and utilizes difference-in-difference model to retest the policy effect. Finally, consistent conclusions are drawn from random permutation test and difference-in-difference model to those of synthetic control methods proving that the conclusions are robust.#br#The results show that the comprehensive innovation reform experimental policy significantly promotes the transformation of scientific and technological achievements in the pilot zones in general. As for the individual effect, the comprehensive innovation reform experimental policy has a significant promoting effect on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements in Guangdong and Sichuan, but it has no significant effect on that in Anhui. The policy effect was evident in the year of policy implementation, and it increased significantly two years later. The causes of individual differences in policy effect might be concluded into three aspects. First, the main tasks of pilot zones are different.It is the main task of Anhui to promote the relocation and readjustment of industries, but Anhui undertakes more raw materials, textiles and other low-level, low value-added traditional industries, which in turn restricts the level and ability of technology transfer. Second, the utilization efficiencies of innovation resources are different. The utilization efficiency of innovative resources in Anhui is relatively low, and the enthusiasm of scientific researchers to participate in the transformation of scientific and technological achievements is insufficient. Third, the market value and potential market demand of scientific and technological achievements are different. On the one hand, the technological content and innovation level of scientific and technological achievements in Anhui are insufficient, and the transformation ability of major scientific and technological achievements is weak. On the other hand, the low population concentration limits the overall size and purchasing power of the market. Also, the demand power that comes from adjustment and optimization of industrial structure lacks. The R&D fund input, economy scale, technology maturity, population concentration, industrial structure and innovation capacity have significant influence on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.#br#The study has made marginal contributions in the following aspects. First, it is the first to evaluate the policy effect of comprehensive innovation reform experiment on the goal of transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Second, it analyzes both overall policy effect and individual policy effect, where most scholars only focus on overall policy effect and ignore individual differences. Third, it innovatively introduces and utilizes synthetic control methods to evaluate policy effect of comprehensive innovation reform experiment and difference-in-difference model to conduct robustness test, and makes up for the limitation of single causal inference.#br#