农户退耕意愿影响因素的贫困尺度差异分析——基于新疆阿克苏地区的调研数据

以新疆阿克苏地区为例,应用多元有序Logit模型,对比分析贫困农户与非贫困农户的退耕意愿及其影响因素,为强化新一轮退耕还林工程的精准扶贫效用提供信息支持。研究结果表明:第一,林业生产经营技能、退耕补偿满意度等是影响农户退耕意愿的重要因素,且不存在显著的贫困尺度差异;第二,亲戚中是否有乡(村)干部、同村人的退耕效果、退耕风险感知、退耕预期收入等对贫困农户与非贫困农户退耕意愿的影响存在较大差异。因此,应规范并强化乡(村)干部的引导作用,建立退耕还林的典型经验推介机制,提升退耕农户的林业生产能力与非农就业技能,以切实增强工程区贫困农户的退耕意愿,有效凸显退耕还林工程的扶贫减贫效用。

Research on the Differences of Influencing Factors of Farmers' Willingness to Participate in GTGP from the View of Poverty Scale: Based on the Survey Data of Aksu Region in Xinjiang

⑴ Background——In 2014,Chinese government started the new round Gain to Green Project(GTGP) in order to continuously promote the coordinated supply of ecological products and economic products in GTGP area,the coupling development of ecosystem and social-economic system,the joint realization of ecological security and production security and survival security. Farmers are the micro-subjects of GTGP,the effective and continuous operation of GTGP depends on their participation willingness. Thus,poor farmers' participation willingness is the basic factor to achieve the value of targeted poverty alleviation of GTGP.⑵ Methods——Based on the survey of 588 poor farmers and 863 non-poor farmers in Aksu region of Xinjiang,the paper uses Multiple Ordered Logit Model to analyzes how the 10 variables of Preset factors,Community factors,Ability factors,Demand factors,and so on influence the participation willingness of farmers. And then the paper comparatively analyzes the differences of influencing factors of participation willingness between the poor farmers and non-poor farmers in typical GTGP region.⑶ Results——Firstly,the variables including family annual income,proportion of agricultural income,forestry production and management skills,off-farm ability,the compensation for GTGP have a significant impact on the participation willingness of poor farmers and non-poor farmers. Secondly,because of the heterogeneity between poor farmers and non-poor farmers,the variables involving whether there's rural cadres in your relatives,the GTGP effect from your village,risk perception of GTGP and the expected income of GTGP have a differential influence to the participation willingness of poor farmers and non-poor farmers. From the view of The GTGP effect,the previous exploration,the effects of farmers' participation and the real case of GTGP for the poor farmers will deeply influence the participation willingness of poor farmers. However,non-poor farmers treat the effects of other participants in their village as the decision reference,not the determining factors of participation willingness of GTGP. From the view of Risk perception of GTGP,poor farmers usually have the risk aversion preference,and non-poor farmers usually have the moderate aversion or moderate neutrality preference toward the GTGP. The participation willingness of poor farmers more inclined to consider the amount of risk taken,and non-poor farmers more likely to consider the expectations of GTGP. From the view of the expected income of GTGP,poor farmers prefer the short-term benefits from compensation of GTGP,and they always lack of the confidence in long-term gains such as off-farm and direct forestry management. But non-poor farmer might pay more attention to the availability of sustained and long-termed benefits of GTGP.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In order to highlighting the effectiveness of poverty alleviation and poverty reduction of GTGP,it's necessary to pay more attention to significant influencing factors of participation willingness of poor farmers,and form the corporate promotion mechanism of poor farmers' active participation and key support of GTGP. It's necessary to standardize and strengthen the guiding role of rural cadres,strengthen the grassroots governance ability in rural areas of minority areas,and establish the referral mechanism of typical experience of GTGP and skill training mechanism of participant farmers,improve the forestry production ability and off-farm skills of participant farmers,and continue to optimize the policy of the new round GTGP,in order to strengthen the participation willingness of poor famers in GTGP region and enhance the effectiveness of poverty alleviation in of GTGP.