多哈回合分层公式对中国农产品税率分布的影响效应分析

在新一轮多哈回合农产品谈判中,关税削减是市场准入部分的核心议题,本文在《中华人民共和国进出口税则》(2006)的基础上模拟了5个主要的分层削减公式对中国农产品税率分布的影响。采用了均值、中位数、众数、标准差系数、极大值、偏度系数和峰度系数衡量削减效果。模拟结果显示,G20模拟方案(三)和美国模拟方案的降税幅度较大,而G10模拟方案和G20模拟方案(一)的降税幅度较小,后者对中国农业带来的冲击相对较弱。

A Study on the Effects of Tiered Formula to China's Agriculture Tariff Distribution in Doha Round

Tariff reduction is a core issue of market access in new round Doha negotiation,which relates to the process of following issues.The tiered formula has become the main form in tariff reduction,so this paper simulates the effects of five major tiered formulas to China’s agriculture tariff based on"Import and Export of the People’s Republic of China"(2006).In the simulation,this paper adopts seven statistical indicators(mean,median,mode,standard deviation coefficient,maximum,coefficient of skewness and coefficient of kurtosis)to measure the effects of reduction.Simulation result shows that the G20(3)and US programs have strong effect on tariff reduction,whereas G10 and G20(1)have less effect on tariff reduction which will exert weak effect on China's agriculture from tariff reduction perspective alone.