转变经济增长方式——基于VAR和VEC模型的实证研究

结合当前有效需求不足的现状,运用VAR和VEC模型建立了消费、投资与GDP的经济计量模型,分析了建国以来消费、投资对经济增长的影响,得出当前提高消费是优化和促进经济较快增长的重要方式。目前我国投资的提升空间有限,依靠扩大投资总量的政策措施刺激经济增长的余地不大;而通过刺激最终消费、促进消费结构升级,对促进经济增长的作用日益显现。

Transformation Economy Growth Way——Based on the experience studies with VAR and VEC model

Considering the status of effective demand insufficiency, this paper analyzes how consumption and investment affects economic growth since the foundation of state by use of VAR and VEC model. The conclusion is that increasing consumption is the important way to optimize and accelerate economic growth. At present, because of the limitation of investment increase, it is very difficult to stimulate the economic growth depending on the policy of investment in china. So it is more useful to stimulate the final consumption and the promotion of consumption pattern.