重庆市城市建设用地扩张与经济发展关联测度

目的]为探求重庆市城市建设用地扩张与经济发展之间的关系,采用1997—2016年城市建设用地与经济发展数据,分析两者之间的动态关系,为重庆市合理确定城市发展边界,提升经济发展质量提供参考。方法]采用协整检验、Granger因果检验和脉冲响应等计量分析方法分析重庆市城市建设用地扩张与经济发展之间的关联。结果](1)城市建设用地扩张呈正异速增长类型,城市各功能性用地扩张具有明显的不均衡性,居住用地、工业用地和道路广场用地是城市建设用地扩张的主体。(2)城市建设用地扩张和经济发展存在长期均衡关系,两者呈同质性变化特征。(3)GDP在滞后1、2阶时,在90%、99%的置信水平下,经济发展是城市建设用地扩张的Granger原因;但城市建设用地是GDP增长的Granger原因并不明显,说明盲目地增加城市建设用地供给并不一定促进经济发展。(4)经济发展主要受自身波动的影响,短期内城市建设用地扩张对经济发展的贡献呈上升趋势,但增幅不大。经济发展对城市建设用地扩张的作用明显, 90%以上的城市用建设用地扩张在经济发展波动中得到解释。结论]城市建设用地扩展对经济发展的贡献度有限,但经济发展是推动城市建设用地扩张的主要因素。未来应深化经济发展与城市空间关联的研究,制定差别化的城市建设用地扩张管控政策。

CORRELATION MEASURE BETWEEN URBAN CONSTRUCTION LAND EXPANSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHONGQING

In order to explore the relationship between urban construction land expansion and economic development in Chongqing, the data of urban construction land and economic development from 1997 to 2016 were used to analyze the dynamic relationship between the two, and determine the urban development boundary for Chongqing, which could provide reference for improving the quality of economic development. The correlation analysis between urban construction land expansion and economic development in Chongqing was analyzed by means of co integration test, Granger causality test and impulse response. The results were showed as follows. The expansion of urban construction land was a type of positive allometric growth. The expansion of urban functional land use had obvious imbalance. The land for residential land, industrial land and road square was the main body of urban construction land expansion. There was a long term equilibrium relationship between urban construction land expansion and economic development, and the two were characterized by homogeneity. When GDP was lagging at the 1st and 2nd levels, at 90% and 99% confidence level, economic development was the Granger cause of urban construction land expansion; but the urban construction land was the GDP growth of the Granger reason was not obvious, indicating blindness increasing the supply of urban construction land did not necessarily promote economic development. Economic development was mainly affected by its own fluctuations. In the short term, the contribution of urban construction land expansion to economic development is on the rise, but the growth rate was not large. The role of economic development in the expansion of urban construction land was obvious. More than 90% of urban construction land expansion was explained in the fluctuation of economic development. The contribution of urban construction land expansion to economic development is limited, but economic development is the main factor driving the expansion of urban construction land. In the future, we should deepen the study of economic development and urban spatial correlation, and formulate differentiated policies for urban construction land expansion and control.