中国竹藤类产品出口潜力研究——基于引力模型的实证分析

基于引力模型,运用2007~2014年8年间中国对24个竹藤类产品贸易伙伴国的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明:APEC的有关贸易安排对中国竹藤类产品贸易流量的影响较大,美国、日本、澳大利亚等APEC成员国是中国排名前3位的竹藤类产品进口国;贸易潜力测算结果显示中国对这3个国家均存在贸易不足,竹藤类产品贸易还有很大潜力可挖。基于此,提出应进一步加强中国与APEC成员国之间的合作交流,积极推进中国对美国、日本、澳大利亚等APEC成员国竹藤类产品出口向多样化和高质量化的方向发展,尽量选择与中国要素禀赋差异小的国家开展竹藤类产品的贸易等建议。

Study on the Export Potential of China Bamboo and Rattan Products---An empirical analysis based on Gravity model

Based on the Gravity model, this paper carried on an empirical analysis on the panel data of eight years from 2007 to 2014 and between China and 24 trading partners. The results showed that:The related APEC trade arrangements have a big influence on Chinese bamboo and rattan products trade flows. The United States, Japan, Australia are China’s top three bamboo and rattan products importers, while according to the results, the three countries all had insufficient trade with China and had great trade potential. We put forward that China should further strengthen the cooperation with the APEC members, promote the diversification and quality of Chinese bamboo and rattan products trade with the United States, Japan, Australia and other APEC members actively, and try to establish trade in countries which have smaller difference of factor endowments with China.