创新支持政策下自贸试验区企业多阶段研发投资动态决策分析

基于实物期权理论，构建自贸试验区企业多阶段研发投资动态决策模型，运用数值模拟方法，考量自贸试验区相关税收、补贴以及知识产权保护等创新支持政策对企业研发投资行为的影响。结果显示：相比传统投资决策方法，多阶段研发投资动态决策模型能更好地帮助企业根据市场环境变化动态调整研发投资策略，发掘政策红利；有助于政府及时调整与完善相关政策，激励与引导企业创新。鉴于此，需完善鼓励类产业目录、优化事中事后监管规则、健全知识产权保护机制、适时调整企业发展战略。

Analysis of Dynamic Decision-Making for Multi-Stage R&D Investment of Enterprises in Pilot Free Trade Zones under Innovation Support Policies

Based on the theory of real options, a dynamic decision-making model for multi-stage R&D investment of enterprises in the pilot free trade zones is constructed, and numerical simulation method is used to analyze the impact of innovation support policies such as taxes, subsidies, and intellectual property protection on the R&D investment behavior of enterprises in the pilot free trade zones. The results show that compared to traditional investment decision-making methods, the model can not only better assist enterprises in dynamically adjusting their R&D investment strategies according to changes in the market environment, exploring policy dividends, but also help the government adjust and improve relevant policies in a timely manner, incentivizing and guiding enterprise innovation. In view of this, it is necessary to improve the directory of encouraged industries, optimize the rules of supervision during and after the event, improve the mechanism for intellectual property protection, and adjust the development strategy of enterprises in a timely manner.