论天津市财政支农总量平稳合理发展与结构优化

文章利用时间序列计量分析方法，以1978—2006年天津市财政支农总量数据为依据，建立了天津市财政支农总量的最佳相关模型及预测；同时对财政支农资金在各项被支持内容上的分配比重进行结构性分析，得出农业科技支持力度不断加强但仍显不足，农产品市场服务和环境保护空缺，良种补贴范围不合理等问题并提出相关建议。

Balanced and Reasonable Development and Optimized Structure in the Aggregate Financial Support for Agriculture of Tianjin

This article bases on the financial amount of support for agriculture in Tianjin from1978 to 2006, and applies the analytical methods of time series and econometrics to establish the optimum and forecast models of the aggregate financial support for agricuhure. Synchronously, we analyses the proportions of funds in the contents of projects, and draw these conclusions： support for agriculture of science and technology is strengthened, but still insufficient, the service of agricultural market and protection of environment are in the blank, the scope of subsidies for good seeds is unreasonable. And from these conclusions we put forward some relative proposes and countermeasures.