土地招拍挂制度在多大程度上提升了房价?——基于“8.31大限”的干预分析模型研究

采用干预分析模型,利用1999年2月—2010年10月中国房价的月度时间序列数据,对以"8.31大限"为代表的土地招拍挂政策进行规范的政策评估。研究表明,土地招拍挂政策的实施使全国房价提高了4.7～15.7个百分点。分地区的进一步研究发现,土地招拍挂政策对东部的北京和浙江并没有产生明显影响,对中西部地区的湖南、江西、贵州、宁夏四省区产生了较大的作用,体现出十分明显的地区差异。

To What Extent the System of Land Tender, Auction and Listing Raises Housing Prices:Based on Intervention Analysis Model of "8.31 Policy"

Based on monthly time serious data from February 1999 to October 2010,this paper utilizes intervention analysis model to evaluate land use policy,which can be represented by "8.31policy".The results show that application of the policy of land tender,auction and listing increases 4.7%-15.7% of house prices.A further regional study finds that this policy does not have significant price effects on eastern regions like Zhejiang and Beijing.However,it has larger impacts on central and western China such as Hunan,Jiangxi,Guizhou and Ningxia,which indicates significant regional difference.