中国粮食实现稳定增产了吗?——基于1978—2009年粮食主产区粮食产量的H-P滤波分解

为从定量视角检验中国粮食是否实现稳定增产,通过收集1978—2009年12个主要产粮省份粮食产量和播种面积数据,计算各省粮食单产,同时构建H-P滤波分解模型,测算中国粮食主产区粮食产量的长期趋势与短期波动,并对短期波动的收敛性进行Mann-Whitney检验。研究发现:就长期趋势来看,中国粮食主产区粮食产量自1978年以来保持持续、稳定增产,但是进入2000年以后粮食增产趋势趋于平缓;就短期波动来看,粮食生产波幅总体较为稳定,但自2004年以来粮食短期波动呈现收敛性,粮食增长强度弱于上世纪80年代水平。

Has Chinese Crop Production Increased Stably? Based on Crop Production H-P Filter in Major Crop Producing Areas:1978-2009

In order to test whether Chinese crop production has increased stably,data on crop production and planting areas have been collected,and the average production is calculated.H-P filter model is built up to decompose the long term trend and the short term fluctuation,the Mann-Whitney test is carried out to verify whether the fluctuation is convergent.Research finds out that:on the long term perspective,Chinese crop production has kept stable increase since 1978,but the increase speed is slowing;based on the short term fluctuation perspective,the fluctuation rang is reasonable,but since 2004 the fluctuation intensity has been convergent and it was smaller than that of 1980’s.