出口退税率的调整与出口稳定增长——基于中国工业行业面板数据的实证分析

运用不同行业的面板数据进行协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,考察如何通过出口退税政策促进中国出口稳定增长。研究结果显示:对于不同行业,出口退税政策对出口增长的影响不同;出口退税政策对机电行业产品出口的影响不明显;长期内,出口退税政策对高新技术行业、传统行业和"两资一高"行业的出口增长影响显著。因此,中国可以通过提高高新技术行业的出口退税率和降低传统行业及"两资一高"行业的出口退税率,在促进产业升级的同时保持总体出口的稳定增长。

Adjustment of Export Tax Rebate and Stable Export Growth:Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of China's Industry

Cointegration analysis and granger test are applied in the paper to find the ways to improve stable export growth by adjusting export tax rebate.The result shows export tax rebate has different effects on different industries.Export tax rebate has no obvious effect on the export of electromechanical products.In the long run,export tax rebate has obvious effect on the export of high-tech products,traditional products,energy sources and raw material.Therefore,raising export tax rebate of high-tech products and reducing export tax rebate of the traditional products,the energy sources and raw material will improve stable export growth and industry upgrading.