人民币汇率、国际资本流动与货币政策有效性研究*——基于修正BGT模型的实证分析

本文采用修正的BGT模型，实证研究了国际资本流动影响因素以及央行在面对国内外资本市场波动、金融体系变迁等情形下，货币政策实施方式及其效果。结果显示，随着意愿结售汇制度的实行和人民币汇率弹性的增强，央行的货币自主性得以加强；在开放环境下，国际资本流动受国内外利差、资本市场溢价、货币政策及汇率制度和外汇管理制度的影响。面对这些国内外冲击，央行进行了央票冲销或调整准备金率等的反向货币政策操作，以实现货币政策目标。

EXCHANGE RATE REGIME,INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOW AND EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY—— An Empirical Analysis Based on Modified BGT Model

Using modified BGT model, this paper studies the effectiveness of monetary policy of PBOC when facing capital market fluctuation, international economic environment change and domestic financial reforms. The results show as follows: With the implementation of willingness exchange settlement system and the increased RMB exchange rate elasticity, the central banks monetary autonomy has been strengthened. Factors such as interest rate gap, exchange rate expectation, stock market fluctuation, monetary policy will affect international capital flow. Central bank has taken various monetary policy operations such as sterilization via central bank bills or adjustment of required reserve ratio to counter these effects.